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THE NOTE BOOK 
OF A NEUTRAL 



BY 
JOSEPH MEDILL PATTERSON 




NEW YORK 

DUFFIELD & COMPANY 

1916 



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Reprinted from the Chicago Tribune 



Copyright, 1915, by Joseph Medill Patterson 




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JAN ~6 i9i3 



CI.A41S326 



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THE NOTE BOOK 
OF A NEUTRAL 



S. S. CYMRIC, Sept. 17, 1915. 

*^Our country! In her intercourse with 
foreign nations may she always be in the 
right; but our country, right or wrong.'' 

— Stephen Decatur. 

I propose to write five or six 
articles setting forth my reflec- 
tions on the great war. These 
articles cannot be classed as war 
correspondence, for they will 
contain little, if anything, that 

3 



THE NOTE BOOK 



is new or unknown to the readers 
of newspapers. They are rather 
the reactions of an American 
born and brought up in the Mis- 
sissippi valley, whose parents and 
grandparents lived in the same 
region, and whose ancestors in 
some branches for several gener- 
ations back were native to this 
continent. 

Since the war began I have 
been in Belgium on three sep- 
arate occasions. First, from the 
east with the Germans as far as 
Liege; next, from the north in 
Antwerp with the Belgians ; and 
recently from the west with 
French staff-officers in the strip 
of Belgian territory near the sea, 
which the Germans have not 
been able to occupy. In addition 



OF A NEUTRAL 



to this I have talked with certain 
dignitaries, as well as many more 
both civil and military who 
were not dignitaries, in London, 
Berlin, and Paris. 

I have read many books, news- 
papers, and other periodicals 
bearing on the war, though this 
reading has been confined to 
English, French, and transla- 
tions from the German, for I 
cannot read or talk German. 

Decatur's toast which heads 
this column is frequently crit- 
icized as immoral. It is com- 
pared to "My mother, may she 
always be sober ; but my mother, 
drunk or sober." 

It is the use of the word ' im- 
moral" when applied to inter- 

5 



THE NOTE BOOK 



national politics that often leads 
us astray. 

England proclaims every power 
moral that is allied with England 
and every power immoral that is 
opposed to England. A hundred 
years ago the English described 
Germans, Austrians, and Rus- 
sians as ''our gallant allies," 
among whom, ironically enough, 
''the brave Prussians, under the 
dogged leadership of old Bluch- 
er," were singled out for the most 
lavish praise. At the same time 
the British government officially 
described the French Emperor as 
the "enemy of mankind" (i. e., 
England), and pronounced him 
an outcast "outside the pale of 
social and civil relations," and 
having dethroned him, forced 



OF A NEUTRAL 



upon the throne of France in his 
place the hopeless and detested 
Bourbons. 

Sixty years ago in Crimea, 
England promoted France, Tur- 
key, and Sardinia to the rank of 
"noble allies," which invaded 
Russia with the laudable purpose 
of ''carrying the torch of civili- 
zation into the empire of ice, 
night, and the knout." 

Incidentally, fifty years ago 
Prussia whipped its present no- 
ble ally, Austria, because that 
country was a ''treaty breaker" 
and "faithless to its plighted 
word." 

Thirty-eight years ago England 
prevented Russia from getting 
Constantinople and kept Turkey 
in Europe because the Czar 

7 



THE NOTE BOOK 



''aimed at the dominion of the 
world." 

Thirty years ago Russia threat- 
ened India and became "the 
bear that walks like a man." 

Now the wheel has gone full 
circle. The former allies, Ger- 
many and Austria, are Huns, 
and in particular "the brave 
Prussians under the dogged lead- 
ership, etc." are "baby-killing 
junkers," while the same Hohen- 
zollern family with which the 
English royal family has been 
proudly exchanging daughters 
for the last century, since it 
fights against England and 
France instead of with England 
against France, has become the 
spume of hell. 

8 



OF A NEUTRAL 



Through all the permutations 
and combinations of interna- 
tional politics the wonderful gov- 
erning class of England has kept 
one beacon light for guidance, 
and only one — the interest of the 
British empire. Whatever na- 
tion could temporarily subserve 
that interest became temporarily 
a moral nation, and w^hatever 
nation opposed that interest be- 
came, during the continuance 
of its opposition, the vilest of the 
vile. 

Has this policy on the whole 
proved successful? If you are in 
doubt about it look at the map 
of the world, where you will find 
one-fifth of the land and all the 
oceans painted British red. 

While the people are split into 

9 



THE NOTE BOOK 



nations, there is only one na- 
tional morality which we Amer- 
icans have a right to consider — 
the interest of America. 

Our President, ex-Presidents, 
Congressmen, diplomats, pub- 
lishers (so far as they are ac- 
corded public suffrage) should, 
if any of them do not, consider 
themselves as attorneys repre- 
senting America and America 
only in the tribunal of nations. 
The duties of the attorney are 
to his client only. Let the at- 
torneys for other nations repre- 
sent them. 

No American has a right to 
consider any interest save the 
interest of America. Any Amer- 
ican in a position of power or 
influence who allows any con- 

10 



OF A NEUTRAL 



sideration but the selfish in- 
terests of America to guide him 
is a traitor — unconsciously per- 
haps, and without a sense of 
guilt, but still a traitor so far as 
results go. 

Any American who suggests or 
even hopes that America should 
go into the war on the side of the 
allies because he loves France, or 
because he sorrows for Belgium, 
or because of the Lusitania, or 
because he thinks it would be 
unfortunate for humanity in 
general to have Germany tri- 
umph, is a traitor to America. 

Conversely, the American who 
agitates for the stoppage of am- 
munition exports, or who would 

have us complicate in any sense 

11 



THE NOTE BOOK 



whatever our relations with 
Great Britain for the sake of 
Germany, is a traitor to Amer- 
ica. He may be filial toward 
Germany. He is a traitor to 
America. 

Our duty as Americans is not 
to the extent of one per cent of 
one per cent to France, Belgium, 
Germany, or foreign humanity. 
It is to America, it is only to 
America, all to America, and to 
America always. 

Therefore, the American who 
would have us intervene in the 
war on the side of the allies be- 
cause he thinks that if we don't 
do so Germany will win, and if 
Germany wins will attack us 
next, and that it is better for us 
to fight Germany now with allies 

12 



OF A NEUTRAL 



than later alone — such a man, 
I say, may or may not be mis- 
taken, but he is thinking pa- 
triotically. Whether he is think- 
ing wisely or not, no one in the 
world knows yet. 

One may be for our country, 
''right or wrong," without ad- 
miring its faults. Our country 
is inferior to other countries in 
many, if not most, of the higher 
arts of civilization. 



We are inferior to the Rus- 
sians, Germans, Austrians, Ital- 
ians, French in music; to the 
same five and to England in 
literature, and the theater, and 
probably also painting; to Ger- 
many and Austria in medicine; 
to Germany and France in phi- 

13 



THE NOTE BOOK 



losophy (certainly since the death 
of William James) ; to Germany 
and France in science; to Ger- 
many, France, Austria, and Eng- 
land in municipal government; 
to all of them, except possibly 
France, in judicial practice and 
procedure ; to Germany and Eng- 
land in navy ; to all powers except 
China in army; to England and 
France as colony managers; to 
Japan, Germany, France, and 
the rest of the list in patriotism ; 
to Germany and France in agri- 
culture (each raises about twice 
as much oats, wheat, barley, and 
considerably more hay and po- 
tatoes per acre than we do) ; to 
Germany particularly in wise 
social legislation for the benefit 
of the working classes, which, of 

14 



OF A NEUTRAL 



course, is to the strengthening of 
the state. There aren't as many 
slum dwellings in all Germany 
as in Chicago alone. 

However, a nation that in 
about a century has invented the 
steamship, the telegraph, the 
ironclad, the revolver, repeating 
rifle, machine gun, reaper, tele- 
phone, incandescent light, arc 
light, Pullman car, stock yards, 
Bessemer steel, typewriter, sky- 
scraper, submarine, aeroplane, 
trolley car, and moving picture, 
may not be dismissed with con- 
tempt. Such a nation is worth 
saving. 

But because we have been so 
clever and had virgin fields to 
settle, money came easy to us, 

15 



THE NOTE BOOK 



and we grew rich and soft. After 
the war we are certain to be the 
envy and desire of nations that 
are hard and poor. 

Our position is perilous. Let 
us quit sentimentalizing about 
others who have no use for us, 
and think about ourselves and 
the state of our own nation. 



16 



II 



S. S. CYMRIC, Sept. 18, 1915. 

^'Our country! In her intercourse with 
foreign nations may she ahvays be in the 
right; but our country, right or wrong.'' 

— Stephen Decatur. 

The amiable Gen. Bernhardi 
said that war was a biological 
necessity, and made for prog- 
ress. I think he was right, by 
and large, and that is why I do 
not believe that the German 
idea can be beaten in this war. 
Suppose that one people in Eu- 
rope develops a higher form of 
civilization than its neighbors. 

It may be the castle and the 

2 n 



THE NOTE BOOK 



knight emerging from the dark 
ages, or the monarch raising 
himself and making one central- 
ized nation by overthrowing feu- 
dalism, or the middle trading- 
class reaching for its power, or 
liberty, fraternity, equality, in- 
dividualism against social and 
legal caste. It may be the state 
socialism of modern Germany 
born from individualism by pres- 
sure of population. Whatever 
the latest form of social develop- 
ment in the most advanced 
country, war short circuits its 
spread to its neighbors. 

That is why Germany is so 
difficult to beat. She had a 
more efficient civilization than 
any of her foes at the beginning 
of the war. To whip the Ger- 

18 



OF A NEUTRAL 



man armies, though it will prove 
very difficult, is not impossible. 
It may be done in time by num- 
bers and resources. But it can't 
be done, in my humble judg- 
ment, unless Germany's ene- 
mies imitate Germany's meth- 
ods of organization. And that 
is precisely what they are doing 
today. 

England is Germanizing its 
social structure as fast as pos- 
sible, because so, and so only, 
can she gain sufficient strength 
to whip Germany. 

So, though Germany be beat- 
en, the German idea will win. 
Thus in one sense Bernhardi 
was right about this war mean- 
ing world power or downfall for 

I? 



THE NOTE BOOK 



his country. The German idea 
will have world power after the 
war, because it has proved its 
fundamental strength in con- 
flict with a hostile world, and the 
other nations are being forced 
to come to it or forego hope of 
victory. 

The competitive system makes 
a weak nation; the highly or- 
ganized nation is a strong one. 
Woe to us if we don't under- 
stand that after the war. But I 
don't think we will consent to 
understand it until we have been 
beaten in war, probably by either 
Germany or Japan. I think it 
will take a war to force our po- 
litical and social systems into 
twentieth-century lines. 

Words don't count in such 

2Q 



OF A NEUTRAL 



cases. You can tell our pluto- 
crats that much of the wealth 
that goes to make them strong 
individually should go to make 
the nation strong as a whole, 
and you could prove biologically 
and every other way that women 
workers shouldn't stand on their 
feet too long every day and that 
children shouldn't work at all 
and that no child should be al- 
lowed to have adenoids or bad 
teeth, no matter how abomina- 
bly ignorant or miserably poor 
his parents might be, and you 
could prove to politicians that 
as a method for city, state, coun- 
ty, park government, pure de- 
mocracy has proved an impure 
failure, and you could prove to 
young workmen and farmers 

21 



THE NOTE BOOK 



(and all other young men) that 
they ought to be made to go into 
the army for at least a year or 
the Japanese would gobble us. 

Would it make any difference 
what one said, though one spoke 
with the tongues of men and of 
angels? I don't think it would 
make any difference what any 
one said, and so I think we are 
in for a beating before long un- 
less the balance of power re- 
mains so absolutely even among 
the other powers that no one of 
either side will dare attack us, 
not from fear of us (why should 
any one fear us?) but for fear 
that the other side would attack 
them. 

We are rich, fat, soft, and easy 

22 



OF A NEUTRAL 



picking for any gunmen among 
the other nations. And the 
world is full of gunmen just 
now. 

This explains why particularly 
at this time we must think of 
America first — America uber 
alles. We are truly in a precari- 
ous position. We have wounded 
Germany beyond her power or 
willingness to forgive. She be- 
lieves that without our muni- 
tions she could win surely. 
Whether that is true or other- 
wise, it is what she believes. 
She sees us as one of the allies, 
supplying the fighting forces 
with food and ammunition. She 
sees us as one of the allies too 
cowardly to fight, but skulking 
in the background, coining the 

23 



THE NOTE BOOK 



blood of German soldiers into 
American gold. 

Well, to all intents and pur- 
poses we are one of the allies. 
But as a nation we get few fruits 
of the alliance. That goes to 
the private manufacturers of 
ammunition. 

Now is the time to put the 
allies under obligation, to make 
them realize that if Germany is 
going to hate us after the war, 
they (which, of course, means 
England with her navy) must 
have the gratitude to protect us 
after the war from Germany's 
vengeance or Japan's ambition. 
Indeed, the gratitude of the 
strong to the weak after the event 
is not the livest thing on earth, 
but it is a considerable improve- 

24 



OF A NEUTRAL 



ment on the contempt and an- 
noyance of the strong for the 
weak at having been held up or 
''blackmailed," as the English 
put it in private conversation, 
for double price in time of need. 

This is the feeling we are now 
carefully preparing for ourselves. 
The feeling of gratitude of the 
strong for the strong would be 
the most fortunate of all for us. 
But there's no question of that. 
We sha'n't be strong as a nation 
until we're first beaten, and may- 
be not then. China isn't strong 
and it certainly has been beaten 
a lot. 

Now is the opportunity to 
drive a bargain with England for 
protection in the future against 
Germany and Japan. If Eng- 

25 



THE NOTE BOOK 



land refuses the bargain we can 
and should stop the export of all 
ammunition to the allies now. 
We shall never be in a more ad- 
vantageous position to make 
such a bargain than precisely 
now. 

Will our government drive or 
attempt to drive such a bargain? 

It will not. We shall proceed 
as heretofore, embittering the 
mighty German nation to ir- 
reconcilability and meanwhile 
placing the allies under no obli- 
gation to us whatsoever for pro- 
tection after the war. 

No Frenchman or Englishman 
with whom I talked — and I 
talked with many — no English 
or French paper which I have 
read, seems to think we have 

26 



OF A NEUTRAL 



acted in anything but an un- 
handsome and rather cowardly 
way to the allies. 

If vou mention ammunition, 
they say: ''Good heavens, we 
pay you money for that, through 
the nose, a double price. Do 
you expect gratitude as well?"*' 
The money that they pay they 
do not pay to the nation, but the 
nation may yet pay for it. 

And so, ladies and gentlemen, 
it appears to this writer that we 
are drifting on to our national 
Niagara, squabbling about the 
rights and wrongs of Belgium, 
thinking nothing of the greater 
Belgium that we may ourselves 
become. 



27 



Ill 



S. S. CYMRIC, Sept. 19, 1915. 

"Owr country! In her intercourse with 
foreign nations may she always he in the 
right; hut our country, right or wrong.'' 

— Stephen Decatur. 

Theodore Roosevelt, in my 
opinion, has more vision than 
any American statesman since 
Lincoln. He saw the need of 
conservation, of recognizing and 
regulating the trusts (not "bust- 
ing" them, the futile policy of 
his two successors), of social 
legislation, which, though be- 
hind that even of such an in- 

28 



OF A NEUTRAL 



dividualistic and conservative 
country as England, was ahead 
of anything we had had. He 
saw the need of national defense 
and that it does not take two to 
make an international quarrel. 
He saw the need of the Panama 
strip and took it, the meaning 
of the Santo Domingo custom- 
houses and seized them; he oc- 
cupied Cuba a second time, 
thereby emasculating the fool- 
ish Piatt amendment. No one 
doubts what he would have done 
in Mexico before that unhappy 
land had reverted into chaos. 

Therefore, when Theodore 
Roosevelt, with full vigor, de- 
livers invective against the Ger- 
mans and prays for their defeat 
it should give every thoughtful 

29 



THE NOTE BOOK 



and patriotic American pause no 
matter what his blood. Roose- 
velt has been right so much 
oftener than he has been wrong 
in his visions that the balance of 
probability would seem to be 
that he is right again in a case 
of this sort. 

But I believe that Col. Roose- 
velt's visions spring rather from 
his subconscious than from his 
conscious mind; that his con- 
clusions come first, the fruit of 
his intuitions and emotions ; and 
that the process of apparent rea- 
soning and the arguments are 
fitted to them afterwards like 
the woodwork and ornamenta- 
tion in a building. 

The reasons which Col. Roose- 

30 



OF A NEUTRAL 



velt alleges as the causes of his 
anger and distrust toward Ger- 
many seem to be chiefly two: 
the violation of Belgian neutral- 
ity and the Lusitania. I confess 
both those reasons leave me cold. 
Indeed, in the present perilous 
condition of our country, any 
reason for international action 
leaves me cold which does not 
have some direct or indirect bear- 
ing on our own welfare. I wish 
other Americans would will 
themselves into the same frame 
of mind. 

President Roosevelt himself vi- 
olated the neutrality of Colom- 
bia and seized the most valuable 
portion of that country — the 
Panama Canal strip. I thought 
he was acting as a patriotic 

31 



THE NOTE BOOK 



American then and applauded 
him for it. Time has only con- 
firmed me in the opinion that 
the seizing of the canal strip was 
the deed of a far-seeing and pa- 
triotic American statesman. 

England has recently violated 
the neutrality of Greece by seiz- 
ing the island of Mitylene. Why? 
Because it was desirable as a 
naval base in the operations 
against the Dardanelles. The 
English seem to approve the de- 
cision without one single dissent- 
ing voice. And I for one think 
that they would have been fools 
if they had acted otherwise. 

"But the Germans committed 
atrocities and the Americans and 
English didn't." 

32 



OF A NEUTRAL 



I believe that both Americans 
and English were armed to com- 
mit the atrocity of death on 
whomsoever resisted them. And 
I believe it indubitable that the 
atrocities committed by the 
Germans in Belgium were in no 
wise more terrible than the atroc- 
ities committed by the Russians 
in East Prussia in August, 1914. 
The rough work of the Russians 
in East Prussia contributed enor- 
mously to the victory of the 
Marne by compelling the Ger- 
mans to withdraw six army corps 
from their western forces just 
before that historic conflict in 
order to protect East Prussia, 
the cradle of the German empire. 
One has heard no complaints of 
Russian atrocities in Germany 

3 33 



THE NOTE BOOK 



by pro-ally partisans and no 
complaints of German atrocities 
in Belgium by pro-Germans. 

In the words of the old political 
story, ''Tell me first which d — n 
rascals did it ; their d — n rascals 
or ours." 

We Americans need not senti- 
mentalize about that famous 
"scrap of paper." It is none of 
our business. Let us consider 
instead what has a very fair 
chance of happening to us, our 
coasts, our fortunes, and our 
families within a decade. 

If any pro-ally partisans here 
insist, and many will, that such 
an attitude is base and cowardly 
cynicism, that treaties are and 
of right ought to be perpetual, 

34 



OF A NEUTRAL 



inviolable, and unalterable, that 
we should certainly protest and 
possibly fight whenever foreign 
nations break treaties between 
themselves, then what do these 
same pro-ally partisans think of 
Italy's action? Italy, that made 
one of the brightest bonfires on 
record out of one of the biggest 
scraps of paper in history — the 
triple alliance. 

The fact is that that is none 
of our business either. We have 
neither the intelligence nor the 
strength to be custodian of the 
morals of all other nations. But 
the Italian scrap of paper and the 
joy with which Italy's violation 
of her treaty was received by the 
allies and pro-allies serve to in- 
dicate what a lot of cant and hy- 

35 



THE NOTE BOOK 

pocrisy has been ladled out on 
this ''scrap of paper" topic. 

If treaties were never broken 
there would never have been a 
war. If treaties were never bro- 
ken Europe would still be divided 
into duchies, margravates, bish- 
oprics, counties. The scraps of 
paper ordaining the relations of 
those defunct divisions would 
have the value of immutable 
law now and for all future time. 

Whether Germany remains a 
military imperium or becomes a 
socialistic democracy, as long as 
German loins remain fruitful 
German weight will press in- 
creasingly upon Belgium and 
Holland. For the German Rhine 
crosses Holland to come to the 
sea and a heavy percentage of 

36 



OF A NEUTRAL 



Rhenish Prussian products must 
reach salt-water by canals to 
Antwerp and the Scheldt. 

If the mouth of the Mississippi 
were held by another power we 
should press upon that power no 
matter what our form of govern- 
ment. 

There may be valid reasons 
why we Americans should wish 
to see the Germans beaten, even 
to the extent of joining in the 
war against them. Don't let us, 
therefore, urge invalid reasons. 

The Lusitania. Permit me to 
say that I made it a particular 
point to return on this slow 
White Star British ship, the 
Cymric, one of the largest of the 
ammunition-carriers, sister ship 

17 



THE NOTE BOOK 



to the Arabic, in order to see if 
my opinion concerning the Lu- 
sitania was in any way modified 
by the fear for a period of twenty- 
four hours that a German sub- 
marine might kill me without 
further warning than I already 
had had. My opinion has not 
changed. The war is between 
England and Germany. Each is 
trying by intimidation and de- 
struction on the sea to starve the 
other and so preserve itself. The 
grain of wheat that inserts itself 
between the millstones may ex- 
pect to be crushed ; the American 
passenger who chooses an Eng- 
lish ship now takes the risk of 
the venture. Before sailing on 
this ship I left behind me a note, 
which would have been pro- 

38 



OF A NEUTRAL 



duced had occasion arisen, to 
state that I wanted to be the sub- 
ject of no representations or in- 
quiries whatever, as I had gone 
into the thing with my eyes open. 
The cause of the Arabic was 
similar to, though less spectacu- 
lar than, the case of the Lusi- 
tania, for the latter carried and 
lost more and more prominent 
passengers, and was a most fa- 
mous flier of the seas. Both had 
received the same degree of warn- 
ing, if warning it may be called, 
namely, a general warning from 
the German government, not a 
specific warning from the Ger- 
man submarine commander. In- 
deed, the case of the Arabic was 
more flagrant because she was 
not carrying ammunition to 

39 



THE NOTE BOOK 



England, but gold to America, 
presumably to pay for ammuni- 
tion or other war material. 

By the way, it has never been 
printed or otherwise publicly ac- 
knowledged in England to this 
day that the Lusitania's cargo 
consisted, in part, of ammuni- 
tion. 

Germany may possibly gain 
on land for two or three years to 
come and yet in the end^ if his- 
tory be prophetic, and it usually 
is, Germany must succumb if 
England can keep its own mer- 
chant fleet copious on the seas 
and keep Germany's merchant- 
men in ports. 

England finally strangled her 
Other great challengers, Spain, 

40 



OF A NEUTRAL 



Louis XIV., Napoleon, with salt- 
water. 

There is no chance now visible 
for Germany to get her ships out 
on the oceans to replenish her 
with gold loaned by us, with 
shells made by us, with copper 
dug from us, with bread raised 
by us and Argentina. 

But this possibility remains 
for Germany, though an improb- 
able possibility it seems to be: 
If Germany could make its sub- 
marine tactics five times as ef- 
fective, if instead of sinking ten 
British merchant ships a week, 
it could sink fifty, then the price 
of food might rise to such a 
pitch in the British islands that 
England would consent to make 
a compromise settlement with 

41 



THE NOTE BOOK 



Germany. Prices of food have 
about doubled in the British 
islands since war began. Ger- 
many and Austria together are, 
or rather claim to be, just about 
self-sustaining, under pressure, 
in reference to food. 

Great Britain has been (I 
haven't the statistics, but this 
is my recollection) considerably 
less than half self-sustaining. 

England's Achilles heel is this 
(if she has one) : She must get 
her food by sea and she can't de- 
fend herself against submarines 
by building twice or ten times as 
many submarines, for subma- 
rines do not encounter each 
other. It is not generally appre- 
ciated that the British subma- 

42 



OF A NEUTRAL 



rines have been handled as gal- 
lantly, as audaciously, as suc- 
cessfully as the German ones, 
but they have an infinitely small- 
er target to shoot at, because 
there are fev^ Teutonic or Turk- 
ish ships left on the seas. But 
submarines can't defend against 
submarines. 

Being of Irish descent in all 
directions (a mixture of Scotch- 
Irish and Irish - Irish) , I have 
never had loving feelings toward 
the British. Nevertheless, as an 
American, it seems to me clearly 
for our v^elfare for England to 
remain mistress of the seas. 

Why? Because in the past 
century England has had the 
oceans in her power and she has 
not misused that power. In 

43 



THE NOTE BOOK 



times of peace at least, she has 
been a fair and equitable and 
just suzerain of the salt- waters. 
She has allowed all to trade with 
her colonies and enter her ports 
and pass by her strong places on 
equal terms with herself. 

If Germany wrested command 
of the sea from England, would 
Germany be as easy a boss as 
England? That no man know- 
eth, but I doubt it, for one. 

I think that in such a case Ger- 
man ships would get the best of 
it all down the line, as compared 
with the ships of other nations. 

I think our own interests as a 
trading nation are safer with 
Neptune in statu quo than they 
would be with Neptune in statu 
Teutonico. 

44 



OF A NEUTRAL 



However, don^t let us forget 
that this is the time to make 
our bargain with the mistress of 
the seas. When the war is over 
we mustn't be left out on the 
end of a branch to the tender 
mercies of an infuriated Ger- 
many blaming us (with partial 
justice) for its defeat. We cer- 
tainly can't strangle Germany 
by salt-water, whether England 
can or not. So let us choose 
England on our side and in the 
holy name of the Monroe doc- 
trine sit tight in our hemisphere 
and make more money. 

It is upon considerations akin 
to these I imagine that the sin- 
gularly active subconscious mind 
of Col. Roosevelt has convinced 

45 



THE NOTE BOOK 



him that Germany should not 
win. One may share in his con- 
clusions without subscribing to 
all his spoken reasons therefor. 



46 



IV 



S. S. CYMRIC, Sept. 20, 1915. 

" Our country! In her intercourse with 
foreign nations may she always be in the 
right; but our country, right or wrong." 

— Stephen Decatur. 

There are two quotations con- 
cerning France that seem timely. 
The first was by a Russian wom- 
an writer a few years ago : 

Spain has the night, Italy the 
evening, France the afternoon, Eng- 
land the noon, Germany the morn- 
ing, but tomorrow belongs to Russia. 

The other one, which I have 
damaged considerably in trans- 

47 



THE NOTE BOOK 

lation, has recently been going 
the rounds of French papers: 

FRANCE 

BY ARMENTER HANIAN 

I was an exile from my own coun- 
try and wandered over the breast of 
the world seeking another country. 

And I came into a land where there 
was only a long spring and a long 
autumn, where they did not know the 
deadly heats of our summers or the 
mortal colds of our mountains. 
Among the vines and sunny fields I 
saw the people of this land at work, 
ever young of soul, smiling, loving, 
and kindly. 

I asked, ''What is the name of this 
happy place?" 

And the answer was, ** France the 
voluptuous/' 

I came to towns of splendid monu- 
ments, of harmonious buildings, of 

48 



OF A NEUTRAL 



proud triumphal arches of the past, 
and above always I saw the spires of 
great cathedrals stretching toward 
the sky, as if to seize upon the feet of 
God. 

I asked, "What is the name of this 
marvelous land?" 

And the answer was, *' France the 
glorious/' 

I advanced again, when I was 
struck by the red color of a large 
river. ... It was a river of warm blood 
that rolled down from afar in thick 
and heavy waves. I advanced again. 
Before me dark clouds of smoke hid 
the endless sky above huge fields of 
warriors in battle; when these died 
smiling at death others took their 
places singing. 

I asked, ''What is the name of this 
chivalrous land?" 

And the answer was, "France the 
courageous," 

At last I came to an immense city, 

4 49 



THE NOTE BOOK 



of which I saw neither the beginning 
nor the end, a city full of sumptuous 
palaces, of parks, and fountains. The 
sun glistened on the marble of the 
streets and kissed the serene, re- 
signed faces of women clothed in 
black. The chimes of churches filled 
the air with solemn sounds, and 
words, until then unknown to me, 
''Te Deum," came from the throats 
of thousands of thousands. 

With respect I asked, ''What is the 
name of this land that mourns?" 

And the answer was, ** France the 
victorious/' 

I kissed the earth of this land and 
said, ''I have found my country, who 
was an exile." 

The two statements are anti- 
pathetic. One suggests a deca- 
dent France, the other a shining 
land of strength and triumph. 
One was written before the war, 

50 



OF A NEUTRAL 



the other after a year of war. 
Each may have been truth at the 
time of writing. 

From a crushed, abased, and 
beaten people France climbed 
in a year to the heights under 
the banner of Joan of Arc. Per- 
haps France may be again a 
first power in Europe and the 
world. 

But before this can happen 
France must cease to sin against 
herself. She must allow her 
population to increase. 

In 1870 the French and Ger- 
mans had about equal numbers, 
39,000,000 each, to draw upon for 
their armies. In 1914 the French 
had 39,000,000; the Germans 68,- 
000,000. In 1870 the French 
fought the Germans nation to 

51 



THE NOTE BOOK 



nation. In 1914 France could not 
hope to face Germany without 
allies. 

If in the course of this dreadful 
war the Germans kill 1,500,000 
French males, the more terrible 
truth remains that France has 
prepared for this war since 1871, 
by denying life to 15,000,000 
French males and 15,000,000 
French females. 

Indeed, the number is far larg- 
er than that. For the German 
people are not entirely without 
the means and the will to pre- 
vent birth. Yet in comparison 
with the Germans, and assuming 
their increase to be the maxi- 
mum possible, the French have 
lost 30,000,000 people in the in- 
terval between the two wars. 

52 



OF A NEUTRAL 



Unless the war and the inspira- 
tion of a splendid triumph shall 
restore the French as a nation 
to the will to live, the willingness 
of her soldiers to die can avail 
little in the long run; treaties, 
allies, diplomacies can avail noth- 
ing. If, after the war, French 
families have two or three chil- 
dren and German families four 
or five, then no matter how the 
war turns out, no matter wheth- 
er the Kaiser ends his days in 
St. Helena with only his sons for 
body servants, no matter if the 
German empire is broken up into 
its pre-Bismarckian fragments, 
no matter about anything else 
but the filling of the cradle, the 
civilized nation which does that 
has the morning, and the nation 

53 



THE NOTE BOOK 



which refuses has the after- 
noon. 

There seems to be a group of 
underlying reasons for birth 
decline: I. The complexity of 
civilization. 2. Density of pop- 
ulation. 3. Religious or other 
idealistic feelings. 

The first cause is by far the 
most important. The more civ- 
ilized a people, the greater its 
wealth, the higher its knowledge 
of sanitation, of art, and of cul- 
ture, the smaller the birth-rate. 

In this respect the general 
biological law of plant and ani- 
mal life seems to operate. The 
most primitive animals have the 
most offspring, the most highly 
developed animals have the few- 
est offspring. Nature can spend 

54 



OF A NEUTRAL 



its vitality upon one species in 
producing many individuals of 
low development, or it can (ap- 
parently) exhaust its vitality up- 
on another species by creating 
comparatively few individuals of 
high organization. The codfish 
lays several million eggs a year, 
the hen several dozen; there are 
several kittens, and usually only 
one baby. 

Among nations whose records 
are kept we know that our south- 
ern negroes, the south Italians, 
and the Russian peasantry have 
the highest birth-rates, while the 
most literate and highly edu- 
cated peoples have the lowest. 

Nature (apparently) can spend 
itself either in producing one 

55 



THE NOTE BOOK 



highly developed white Ameri- 
can, Frenchman, or German, or 
equally in producing two or three 
negroes, Russian peasants, or Si- 
cilians. 

But this law (if it be one) is 
not invariable in application. 
For instance, the degree of civili- 
zation in France and Germany 
is about the same. They have 
pretty nearly the same form of 
government in those respects 
which intimately affect the lives 
of the people, namely, each is 
governed by a permanent ap- 
pointive bureaucracy and (for- 
tunate improvement on our un- 
happy system) the bureaucrat 
seldom serves in his own home 
district. It is as if a mayor who 
succeeded in Peoria might next 

56 



OF A NEUTRAL 



be promoted to the mayoralty of 
Chicago, and a chief of police 
who made good in Chicago might 
expect a call to New York. 

In spread of education, the 
Germans are slightly ahead of 
the French, one-half of 1 per 
cent of recruits entering the 
German army being unable to 
read while in France the figure is 
2}4. per cent. 

The areas of the two countries 
are almost the same: Germany, 
208,780 square miles (91 per cent 
productive) ; France, 207,054 (92>^ 
per cent productive). On ter- 
ritories so nearly equivalent the 
Germans house 30,000,000 more 
people than the French. The 
density of population is 310.4 
per square mile in Germany 

57 



THE NOTE BOOK 



and 189.15 per square mile in 
France. 

In spite of this greater density 
Germany continued (until the 
outbreak of the war) to increase 
her population 800,000 a year or 
more, while the French popula- 
tion increased 30,000 a year. 
Japan with a population of 50,- 
000,000 on an area of 148,000 
square miles, of which ''a high 
percentage" — exact figures not 
given in Statesman's Year Book — 
is rocky and non-productive, in- 
creases her population at the rate 
of 700,000 a year. 

The explanation may have to 
do with the spiritual condition 
of the two countries. Before 
the war France as a nation was 

58 



OF A NEUTRAL 



in a pretty cynical frame of 
mind. Two - thirds of it was 
practically free-thinking, ma- 
terialistic, socialistic. It didn't 
believe in much you couldn't 
touch. 

If our material ideal is ''get 
the money," France's was ''keep 
the money," and that is even 
lower than ours, because less 
adventurous, less daring. 

The French family with a tiny 
security bringing in an income of 
$50 a year would pass that $50 a 
year down unchanged for two or 
three generations. The French- 
man who held a government job 
(there are about 1,000,000 gov- 
ernment jobs in a population of 
39,000,000) wouldn't move half 
an inch out of the groove the of- 

59 



THE NOTE BOOK 



fice had been in since Napoleon 
stereotyped it a century ago. 

Both in public and in private 
business France was swathed in 
red tape and the long way 'round. 
After the war, when she starts 
rebuilding, she particularly 
needs to introduce time clocks, 
typewriters, rubber stamps, and 
cash registers, and other reason- 
ably modern methods of doing 
business. At present she is wast- 
ing a lot of human effort doing 
the work of machines. It is the 
trade-unionists' idea of limita- 
tion of output applied to govern- 
ment and clerical positions. 

This sense of caution which 
permeated the nation may have 
been because France was growing 

60 



OF A NEUTRAL 



old, or it may be because the 
beating of 1870-71 dampened 
its national courage. A victory 
of 1914-16 might restore to 
France its old proud dreams of 
glory, splendor, pride, and ad- 
venture. 

It was, one is permitted to sur- 
mise, this cautious sense of 
"keep the money," together 
with the spread of free-thinking, 
that stopped the French birth- 
rate. 

Belgium, adjoining France, 
and of a precisely similar char- 
acter economically, as well as in 
the Walloon districts being al- 
lied racially, had before the war 
about 8,000,000 inhabitants, as 
against 39,000,000 in France. Yet 
Belgium's population increased 



61 



THE NOTE BOOK 



60,000 a year to France's 30,000. 
Belgium is 95 per cent Catholic; 
two-thirds of the French popula- 
tion is practically free-thinking. 
Germany has at present a very 
intense religion of its own and 
that religion is — Germany. Ger- 
mans implicitly believe that they 
are the greatest people of this or 
any other age. And in many re- 
spects, I think they are right 
about it. However, that does 
not mean that it is at all to our 
American interest for the Ger- 
man empire to extend its su- 
zerainty over any part of the 
western hemisphere, if we can 
prevent it. 

German parents are convinced 
that to bring forth a German 

62 



OF A NEUTRAL 



baby, especially a boy who can be 
a soldier, is a glorious thing for 
the boy, because he can some day 
serve such a Kaiser, and for the 
Kaiser because he can some day 
command such a boy. If France 
was cynical and world weary in 
1913, Germany was the most 
sophomoric, youthful, ''fresh," 
and egotistical of all the great 
nations. 

It believed in ''Gott mit uns," 
Deutschland uber alles," and 
Civilize 'em with a Krag." In 
other words, it had not lost its 
illusions. It never doubted the 
pot of gold at the end of the 
rainbow. 

It didn't ask if life was worth 
living. It knew it was. 

It was a glorious world (fast 

63 



(,(. 
(( 



THE NOTE BOOK 



becoming German) in which to 
introduce a baby, particularly a 
boy. And if his parents, because 
of the number of their own 
brothers and sisters and chil- 
dren, did not have $50 annuities 
to hand on to their children, 
they knew they had something 
far more glorious to give — name- 
ly, German citizenship. 

It is, to us, an utterly naive 
point of view, but it makes for 
good armies. It is the same 
point of view the Japanese have 
about Japan. 

In 1914 Germany was still 
drunk on the wine of 1870. It 
may sober up on the bitter wa- 
ters of 1916. But Japan shows 
no signs of tasting bitter waters. 
1895, 1900, 1905, and 1915 all were 

64 



OF A NEUTRAL 



good vintages for that remark- 
able little people. 

The latest census figures show 
that among white Americans, 
born of native American parents, 
the birth-rate is dropping rapidly 
toward French figures. The rea- 
son for this, I think, is the same 
as in France. Americans of the 
third generation are highly in- 
dividualized and materialistic. 
Our motto is get the money and 
devil takes the hindmost. We 
are so eminently "wise" and 
practical that we refuse to take 
out insurance against the na- 
tional calamity that is probable 
within the decade. 



65 



S. S. CYMRIC, Sept. 21, 1915. 

** Our country! In her intercourse with 
foreign nations may she always he in the 
right; hut our country ^ right or wrong.^' 

— Stephen Decatur. 

From our national point of 
view, the most advantageous set- 
tlement after the great war ap- 
pears to be along some such lines 
as the following : 

1. (And most important.) The 
severing of the chains which 
Japan has taken advantage of 
the European war to fasten upon 
China. This point will be 4i3- 

66 



OF A NEUTRAL 



cussed more fully tomorrow in 
the final article of the series. 

2. England's continued mas- 
tery of the seas, in alliance with 
us. 

3. The restoration of Belgium 
to independence under French 
protection. 

4. The return of Alsace-Lor- 
raine to France. 

5. The autonomy of Poland, 
under German or Austrian pro- 
tection. 

6. The banishment of the 
Turk from Europe. 

7. The division of certain bits 
of Austrian territory among the 
Balkan states on the principle of 
nationality. 

8. The extension of our "pro- 
tection" over Mexico. 

67 



THE NOTE BOOK 



Such arrangements as the fore- 
going would keep the rivalries 
alive between the stronger Eu- 
ropean states, which is to our 
advantage. 

If the European states could 
once finally agree on a fixed and 
permanent distribution of ter- 
ritory in Europe, then their in- 
tense military and diplomatic 
energies would necessarily seek 
outlet in other fields — for exam- 
ple, South and Central America. 

The advantage to us of a naval 
alliance with Great Britain is 
clear enough. Britain has the 
greatest navy in the world. In 
conjunction with that navy we 
could protect our coasts and 
islands against any power or 

68 



OF A NEUTRAL 



combination of powers now in 
sight. A clear and obvious bene- 
fit to us. But what is the quid 
pro quo? What is in it for Eng- 
land ? 

First, if our government has 
the will power and intelligence 
to make the bargain we could 
offer Great Britain more am- 
munition and war material than 
we are now supplying at very 
much lower prices than our 
thrifty manufacturers are now 
charging; or perhaps we could 
furnish the ammunition free 
from our government arsenals. 

If Great Britain refused a naval 
alliance we could refuse to let her 
have any ammunition on any 
terms whatever. 

Next, after the war we could 

69 



THE NOTE BOOK 



increase our navy and make it 
more effective, so that Great 
Britain could not feel that the 
major burden of our defense was 
laid upon her. 

As the British empire and the 
United States are the two great 
North American powers, they 
have a common selfish reason 
for upholding the Monroe doc- 
trine and protecting this entire 
hemisphere from European or 
Asiatic aggression. It is not 
generally appreciated in the 
United States that the Monroe 
doctrine was originated by the 
English and merely accepted by 
President Monroe. 

Belgium, a flat and fertile and 
naturally defenseless territory, 

70 



OF A NEUTRAL 



lying between the sea and the 
German and French races, for 
centuries has been the predes- 
tined battlefield of western Eu- 
rope. Philip II. and his bloody 
Duke of Alva, and William of 
Orange ; Marlborough and Louis 
XIV. ; the armies of revolutionary 
France and the opposing kings; 
Wellington, Blucher, and Napo- 
leon, met in Belgium. Belgium 
has changed hands oftener per- 
haps than any other territory in 
the world — from Spain to Aus- 
tria, to Spain, to Austria, again 
to France, to Holland, to neu- 
tralization. There have been 
more scraps of paper torn up in 
Belgium than anywhere else in 
the world. 

Belgium is, or was, not a nat- 

71 



THE NOTE BOOK 



ural but an artificial nation. 
There is not a Belgian people. 
Before the war 2,800,000 of the 
people spoke only French; 3,200- 
000 spoke only Flemish (akin to 
Dutch), and they were legislat- 
ing against each other at a great 
rate to put one another's lan- 
guage out of the schools and 
courts. The remaining million 
Belgians (over 2 years old) spoke 
both French and Flemish. 

Belgium's separate existence 
dates from 1831, when with the 
covert assistance of England and 
France she obtained her inde- 
pendence from Holland, after 
some fighting of minor conse- 
quence. England's interest in 
Belgium, though now professed- 

72 



OF A NEUTRAL 



ly sentimental, has hitherto been 
frankly commercial. Through 
the independence of Belgium the 
great port of Antwerp became an 
open door through which by vir- 
tue of the most favored nation 
clause English goods could reach 
the heart of the continent on 
equal terms with those of all 
other nations. 

Napoleon spoke of Antwerp as 
a pistol leveled at the heart of 
England. He meant in a mili- 
tary sense. If the Germans hold 
Antwerp it will be a commercial 
pistol in their hands at England's 
heart. 

The following figures for 1912, 
the last published, explain some- 
thing of the bitterness of the war 
and of England's passionate ex- 

73 



THE NOTE BOOK 



clamations concerning Belgian 
atrocities and scraps of paper: 

VESSELS AT BELGIAN PORTS 



ENTERED 

Nationality No. Tonnage 

Belgian 1,962 1,856,832 

British 5,152 7,079,203 

German 1,768 4,269,515 

CLEARED 

Nationality No. Tonnage 

Belgian 1,961 1,871,003 

British 5,145 7,037,734 

German 1,748 4,239,807 

If the Germans should hold 
Antwerp after the war the British 

tonnage would fall at once to 
second place, or lower. 

74 



OF A NEUTRAL 



France was the first of the 
signatories of the widely adver- 
tised neutrality treaty of 1831 to 
propose officially the violation of 
the Belgian neutrality. In 1867 
the French government instruct- 
ed its ambassador in Prussia, 
Covmt Benedetti, to obtain Prus- 
sia's consent to the French con- 
quest of Belgium in compensa- 
tion for French neutrality during 
Prussia's conquest of Austria the 
previous year. 

A regular scale of conces- 
sions was demanded — first, the 
(French) frontiers of 1814 and 
the annexation of Belgium; or 
Luxemburg with Belgium; or 
Luxemburg with Belgium but 
without Antwerp, which was to 
be declared a free city ''to ob- 

75 



THE NOTE BOOK 



viate the intervention of Eng- 
land." 

"The minimum we require," 
wrote the French government to 
Count Benedetti, ''is an osten- 
sible treaty which gives us Lux- 
emburg and a secret treaty 
which, stipulating for an offen- 
sive and defensive alliance, leaves 
us the chance of annexing Bel- 
gium at the right moment, Prus- 
sia engaging to assist us by force 
of arms if necessary in carrying 
out this purpose." 

Bismarck on this occasion out- 
witted Benedetti and held out 
hopes of Belgium for France un- 
til 1870, when Prussia was ready 
for war. 



Between such neighbors as 

76 



OF A NEUTRAL 



France and Germany, Belgium is 
not safe. At least it never has 
been yet. France has invaded 
Belgium oftener than any other 
country. Belgium for its own fu- 
ture security should be drawn 
into the military orbit of one 
of its two great neighbors. It 
should go to France, and its pop- 
ulation be made subject to the 
plans of the French general staff, 
because this would strengthen 
France and tend to bring it tow- 
ard a military parity with Ger- 
many. Commercially Antwerp 
and the rest of Belgium could re- 
main a free port for England. 

Alsace-Lorraine should go to 
France for its moral effect. Such 
a gage of victory would invigorate 
the entire French nation. Per- 

77 



THE NOTE BOOK 



haps if la gloire came back to 
France she might again be fe- 
cund. The hope in its statement 
seems utterly fantastic, but per- 
haps it is not impossible. 

Anything to strengthen the 
position of the French republic 
among the great powers is to the 
advantage of our republic. The 
question is complicated by the 
fact that of the inhabitants of 
Alsace - Lorraine 1,634,000 are 
German - speaking and 204,000 
are French-speaking. But this 
fact is outweighed by the mili- 
tary advantages the French 
would gain by the recession, 
both from the moral effect of 
such a symbol of victory and 
from the strategic value of Metz 
and Strassburg. 

78 



OF A NEUTRAL 



Italy should obtain Trent and 
Triest from Austria if it can take 
them — the right of the stronger. 
We are not particularly inter- 
ested either way. 

Poland should be made au- 
tonomous and under Prussian 
or Austrian rule. Poland is in- 
habited chiefly by Polish Cath- 
olics and Russian Jews. Under 
Russia's economic and relig- 
ious oppression from 100,000 to 
150,000 inhabitants of Russian 
Poland emigrate annually to the 
United States. This number of 
a rather low grade of immigrants 
is far more than we desire or can 
advantageously assimilate. The 
Prussian rule is not mild any- 
where, but it is comparatively 
just. The emigration from Ger- 

79 



THE NOTE BOOK 



man Poland to the United States 
is from 3,500 to 5,000 a year. 

Another reason why we should 
wish Germany to take Poland is 
because that would throw the 
apple of discord between the two 
great military empires of Europe. 
And nothing could be more dis- 
turbing to the peace of mind of 
western Europe and America 
than Germany's reversion to 
Bismarck's policy of ''reinsur- 
ance' ' — a personal understanding 
between the Kaiser and the Czar. 
It is difficvilt to conceive of a 
stronger military combination 
than a zwei-Kaiser bund between 
the German Kaiser and the Rus- 
sian Czar (Austria in attend- 
ance), except a drei-Kaiser bund 

80 



OF A NEUTRAL 



between the three war lords, 
Kaiser, Czar, and Mikado. That 
combination would be irresisti- 
ble on the continents of Europe, 
Asia, and Africa — everywhere its 
soldiers could walk. 

It is as clearly to the advantage 
of the western powers (England, 
France, and the United States) to 
promote hostility between Ger- 
many and Russia as it is to the 
advantage of Germany to revert 
to its traditional policy (from the 
time of Frederick the Great to 
the dropping of Bismarck by 
William II.) of friendship be- 
tween Russia and Germany. 

If as a result of the war Russia 
loses both Poland and vodka, it 
will be the greatest victory in the 
history of the empire of the north, 

6 81 



VI 



S. S. CYMRIC, Sept. 22, 1915. 

''Our country! In her intercourse with 
foreign nations may she always be in the 
right; but our country , right or wrong.** 

— Stephen Decatur. 

The psychology of nations and 
armies in war is not merely more 
intense and passionate, it is com- 
pletely different from that of the 
same nations and armies in 
peace. 

Foreigners, who in times of 
peace were thought of as waiters, 
hotel-keepers, musicians, fox- 
hunters, must be thought of in 

82 



OF A NEUTRAL 



times of war as hordes of anti- 
christs, enemies of mankind. 

It is a practical matter. A 
barber or bellboy who might 
hesitate to shoot at another bar- 
ber or bellboy would conscien- 
tiously spend a winter in the 
trenches to kill an anti-Christ. 

War, other things being ap- 
proximately equal, is won by 
the nation with the strongest 
will, and the way to strengthen 
your will to fight is to think of 
your enemy as base, brutal, and 
feeble and of your side as strong, 
gallant, clever. 

If the Kaiser described the 
English as ''a contemptible little 
army," it would be the proper 
war ''dope" to hand out to his 
soldiers. It would make them 

83 



THE NOTE BOOK 



more eager to attack the English 
than if they thought of them as 
a band of man-eating tigers apt 
to give a terrific mauling to all 
opponents. 

The impression seems widely 
spread abroad in England and 
America at present that the chief 
military operations undertaken 
by the Germans in Belgium were 
against unarmed civilians and 
consisted of destroying churches, 
burning towns, shooting priests, 
cutting hands from babies, and 
violating women. It is of dis- 
tinct military value to spread 
this impression in France and 
England, for it not only lashes 
the soldier of those countries in- 
to fury, but it also skips some- 

84 



OF A NEUTRAL 



what lightly over the fact that in 
their swift thrust through Bel- 
gium and northern France the 
Germans were opposed not only 
by civilians and churches, but 
by fortresses and the armies of 
France, England, and Belgium. 

It is not true that the German 
thrust through Belgium was a 
surprise to the military author- 
ities of France and England. 
The great debate in the French 
parliament in 1912 and 1913 on 
the three-year law (as to whether 
the compulsory military service 
should be raised from two to 
three years) was finally won by 
the advocates of the three-year 
service, largely if not chiefly on 
the argument that the Germans 
would not hesitate to come 

85 



THE NOTE BOOK 



through Belgium if they thought 
they could gain a military ad- 
vantage thereby. These debates 
were not held in executive ses- 
sion, but were published exten- 
sively in the newspapers. Incon- 
sequence the condition of the 
French forts on the Belgian 
frontier was investigated, quite 
a bit of graft was discovered, and 
scandal resulted. 

Nor is there any particular 
validity in the charge that for 
the last forty-four years Ger- 
many alone has been preparing 
for war, while the other nations, 
inferentially, never dreamed of 
such a thing. 

Before the war France took all 
its healthy young men into the 

86 



OF A NEUTRAL 



army for three years, while Ger- 
many took about 60 per cent of 
its healthy young men into the 
army for two years (cavalry 
three). Before the war Russia 
had a peace establishment of 
1,300,000, Germany of 800,000. 
Before the war Great Britain 
had the greatest navy in the 
world. 

I doubt not that Germany was 
the aggressor in this war. I 
think it indisputable that the 
German higher command seized 
what it believed to be an oppor- 
tune moment to strike, and 
struck. But there is no sense 
w hatever in the apparently prev- 
alent notion that Germany has 
been alone in preparing for this 
war since the last one. 

87 



THE NOTE BOOK 



England, France, Germany, 
and Russia all have been ap- 
propriating about the same 
amount of money for military 
and naval expenses each year, 
and if Germany is the only one 
that has spent its military ap- 
propriations on "preparation for 
war," the other countries have 
been stolen blind by their naval 
and military officers and con- 
tractors, or else those gentlemen 
are almighty inefficient. 

Such charges are in the nature 
of "alibis" to explain defeats. If 
the other countries had smashed 
up Germany in a six wrecks' cam- 
paign they would be bragging 
now of their marvelous prepared- 
ness and their politicians would 

88 



OF A NEUTRAL 



be running for office on that 
issue. 

The English in one breath pro- 
claim the bloodthirsty brutality 
of the Germans in making their 
army a "huge war machine" and 
in the next extol their own al- 
most celestial virtue in having 
their navy utterly fit on the 
break of hostilities. 

When (or if) the Japanese at- 
tack us we shall immediately 
present the same alibis for our 
defeats, but with even less ex- 
cuse. The other nations at least 
tried to prepare for the probable 
onslaught of the great military 
empire of Germany. We are not 
even trying to prepare for the 
probable onslaught of the great 
military empire of Japan. 

89 



THE NOTE BOOK 



The other nations complained 
of the surprise attack of Ger- 
many. If the Japanese attack 
us we shall doubtless try after 
the event to derive some minor 
comfort from similar complaint. 
But such comfort is quite minor. 

One thing is certain. If the 
Japanese decide to fight us they 
will try to surprise us and obtain 
for themselves that initial ad- 
vantage. 

What do I mean — war with 
Japan? Has the war in Europe 
addled my brain? Am I seeing 
things at night? 

I hope that is the explanation. 
Nevertheless these facts are in- 
disputable: Japan is now dom- 
inated by descendants of the old 

90 



OF A NEUTRAL 



Samurai, a caste more martial 
even than the Prussian junkers, 
a caste that believes the only 
honorable occupation for a gen- 
tleman is war; a caste that de- 
spises trade and tradesmen. We 
are a nation of tradesmen. 

Under the influence of this 
caste the Japanese have engaged 
in five wars in the past twenty- 
one years and all have been 
glorious and profitable — viz. : 
1894-95 against China, which re- 
sulted in the acquisition of For- 
mosa; 1900 Boxer expedition, 
when Japanese troops distin- 
guished themselves above their 
white allies, resulting in Anglo- 
Japanese alliance ; 1904 - 05 
against Russia, resulting in ac- 
quisition of Corea, Port Arthur, 

91 



THE NOTE BOOK 



lower Manchuria; 1914 against 
Germany, resulting in capture of 
Kiao-Chau, with the rich prov- 
ince of Shantung for a hinter- 
land; 1915, ''the peaceful war," 
with China, in which by the dis- 
play of irresistible force the Jap- 
anese forced a treaty upon China 
which makes that aged country 
tantamount to vassal of the 
islanders. 



Is there any reason to suppose 
that the Japanese have turned 
pacifist since their latest, easiest, 
and most profitable victory last 
March ? 

''But why should they want to 
fight us in particular?" Aside 
from the fact that they like 
fighting and dislike us, we are the 

92 



OF A NEUTRAL 



next logical victim, being a near 
neighbor, unmilitary and rich — 
a wonderful nation to loot. 

Japan and its vassal, China, 
are settled to the suffocation 
point. If the Japanese could 
seize and hold Alaska and the 
Pacific states for five years, at the 
end of that time there would 
probably be not less than 5,000,- 
000 Chinese and Japanese settled 
on this continent, on the other 
side of the Japanese outposts. 

"But Japan hasn't the money 
to fight us." If Japan can con- 
firm and regularize the vassalage 
of China at the peace treaties 
after the great war it will have 
all the natural wealth it needs — 



coal, iron, and cheap labor — to 
start war with us on a grand 



THE NOTE BOOK 

scale. After the war gets well 
under way Japan will expect us 
to pay for its continuance. 

' 'But even if there could be any 
vestige of possibility in such a 
nightmare, why suggest alliance 
with Great Britain, already al- 
lied with Japan, instead of with 
Germany, already at war with 
Japan?" 

For three reasons — 1. England 
has large interests in central and 
south China, and strong naval 
bases in the Pacific, and will be 
jealous of the Japanese advance 
in those regions. Germany has 
already lost its Chinese colony 
and all naval bases in the Pacific. 

2. The British colonies, Brit- 
ish Columbia, New Zealand, and 
Australia, share the apprehen- 

94 



OF A NEUTRAL 



sions of our Pacific states con- 
cerning the Japanese and would 
urge the mother country to com- 
mon cause with us. 

3. The British navy will prob- 
ably be much stronger than the 
German navy after the war and 
it is the high moral duty of our 
statesmen to be with the winner 
if they can pick him out in ad- 
vance. 

However, though we live in an 
inflammable house and ought to 
take out fire insurance, we will 
probably prefer to chance it. 



THE END 













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